As of 2026-09-28, used vehicle imports into Pakistan are estimated to have fallen by approximately 9.5% year-on-year based on automaker annual reports. Chinese vehicles could participate in substitution, but there is no evidence of a supply gap ready for direct replacement. Buyers should first verify import channels, model eligibility, landed costs including duties, and after-sales capability. Growth in Russian imports serves only as a cross-market reference.
What changed
The decline in Pakistan's imports is supported by data, but the "gap" remains unverified. Indus Motor Company (IMC) disclosed in its Annual Report 2026 that used vehicle imports for FY2025–26 are estimated at roughly 38,000 units, compared with about 42,000 units in the previous fiscal year. Editorial calculation: (42,000 − 38,000) ÷ 42,000 ≈ 9.5%. Both base figures are rounded estimates; this result must not be presented as an exact customs-published decline, nor mixed with calendar-year 2026 January–August data. IMC Annual Report, p.112 (PDF p.57); related coverage in Dawn.
Why the decline? The IMC report links it to the January 2026 adjustments to the personal baggage import scheme and pre-shipment inspection requirements for gift and transfer-of-residence schemes. This is the local automaker's explanation; this review confirms only what the report discloses. The independent impact of each measure, the full current regulations, and any exceptions remain to be verified separately, and this cannot be taken as proof that Japanese or Korean sourcing is insufficient. IMC Annual Report
What does the Russia data show? Vedomosti, citing the head of Autostat, reported that from January to August 2026 Russia imported approximately 75,000 used passenger cars from China, up 98% year-on-year. The report lists Volkswagen, Toyota and Audi models, so "imports from China" must not be rewritten as "Chinese-brand imports". PRIME separately reported that over the same period, Russia's imports of used passenger cars older than three years from South Korea fell 63%; this comes from another source and covers a specific route. Vedomosti report, PRIME report
Accordingly, this article treats "Chinese cars can fill the gap" as a commercial hypothesis to be verified: substitution becomes viable only when specific models are eligible for import, CIF prices are competitive, local buyers are willing to purchase, and after-sales support can be delivered. Chinese brands, locally assembled Chinese-brand vehicles, non-Chinese-brand used vehicles exported from China, and new vehicles should each be analysed separately.
Who is affected
| Participant | Questions to resolve first | Deliverables that can be prepared |
|---|---|---|
| Pakistani importers, dealers | Commercial import or an applicable personal scheme? Is the target model eligible? | Importer qualification, model/age verification and customs clearance document checklist |
| Chinese used vehicle exporters | Do registration date, condition, export licence and destination rules align? | Vehicle registration and inspection documents, unit-by-unit quotation, after-sales service confirmation letter where applicable |
| Chinese new vehicle exporters and brand channels | What are the respective cost and service conditions for CBU import versus local assembly? | Local competitor comparison, authorisation and warranty scope, spare parts supply arrangements |
These are transaction assessment recommendations; no local buyer interviews or transaction price surveys have been completed. The original draft's conclusions that designated brands "turn over fast with low depreciation" and that diesel and new energy models should be stocked directly lacked Pakistan-specific evidence and are no longer presented as procurement advice.
Timeline and transition
- 2025-09-24, historical policy announcement: Pakistan's PID published an ECC decision proposing to open commercial used vehicle imports, listing age conditions effective until 2026-06-30 and subsequent adjustment arrangements. This announcement explains the policy background; it cannot alone be used to conclude that all age restrictions were lifted by September 2026. The currently applicable amending orders, scheme conditions and arrangements for goods in transit remain "to be verified". PID announcement
- 2026-06-30, duty document: FBR's S.R.O.1065(I)/2026 replaced 1898(I)/2025, setting a 30% Regulatory Duty on commercially imported used vehicles classified under PCT 8702, 8703, 8704 and 8711 that meet the cited import policy conditions. The document specifies that this duty is levied in addition to the Regulatory Duty imposed under S.R.O.1064(I)/2026; 30% is not the total import tax rate. HS codes (PCT headings), valuation bases and duty combinations for specific models still require unit-by-unit calculation. FBR text, paras 1–2
- From 2026-01-01, China export side: Notice Shang Mao Han [2025] No. 648 requires that for export applications involving vehicles registered "less than 180 days (including 180 days)" prior to application, an After-Sales Maintenance Service Confirmation Letter issued and stamped by the manufacturer must be submitted, specifying the destination country, vehicle details and after-sales outlets; without it, no export licence will be issued. The materials also require declared information to match the registration certificate. This requirement does not replace Pakistan's import permits and inspection certification. Four-ministry notice, official reprint by Hong Kong Trade and Industry Department
Key facts
| Fact | Value / Date | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan used vehicle import estimate and editorial calculation | FY2024–25 approx. 42,000 → FY2025–26 approx. 38,000; approx. 9.5% decline | 2026-09-28 | IMC Annual Report, p.112 |
| IMC's explanation for the decline | Report cites Jan 2026 scheme changes and pre-shipment inspection; disclosure only verified | 2026-09-28 | IMC Annual Report |
| Pakistan commercial import historical policy milestone | ECC announcement 2025-09-24; includes 2026-06-30 milestone, current conditions to be verified | 2026-09-28 | PID |
| Regulatory Duty on specific commercial used vehicle imports | S.R.O.1065(I)/2026, 2026-06-30; 30%, in addition to another cited Regulatory Duty | 2026-09-28 | FBR |
| China export documentation requirement for recently registered vehicles | From 2026-01-01; 180-day scope per notice text; manufacturer after-sales confirmation required | 2026-09-28 | [Shang Mao Han [2025] No. 648](https://www.tid.gov.hk/en/tradecircular/files/2025/ci10272025a.pdf) |
| Russia's used passenger car imports from China | Jan–Aug 2026 approx. 75,000 units, +98% YoY, not limited to Chinese brands | 2026-09-28 | Vedomosti citing Autostat head |
| Specific used vehicles Russia imported from South Korea | Jan–Aug 2026, older than 3 years; approx. 23,000 units, −63% YoY | 2026-09-28 | PRIME citing Autostat head |
| Another set of August statistics for Russia's used passenger car market | Aug 2026 518,200 units, −8.4% YoY; differs from original draft figure | 2026-09-28 | Finmarket citing Autostat |
Note on retained data conflicts in the original draft: The original draft cited RG.ru stating "August 551,000 units, −8% YoY; Chinese brands 36,400 units, approx. +25%", which differs from the totals in the table above. No original statistical note reconciling the two sets was located during this review, so these original draft figures and their comparability remain "to be verified" and are not used to calculate shares or to prove Chinese brands have filled a gap. Original draft source record
Action checklist for Chinese exporters
- Confirm import eligibility by scheme and vehicle first. Obtain applicable regulations and implementation notices from local importers or customs brokers, specifying importer type, vehicle category, first registration date, year of manufacture, steering configuration and emissions information; verify post-2026-06-30 age rules, inspection and certification requirements item by item.
- Then calculate landed cost per vehicle. Break quotations down into vehicle price, freight and insurance, valuation base, applicable duties, inspection and port charges, inland transport and after-sales reserve, noting currency, date and validity. List the 30% Regulatory Duty separately and compare with local quotes for equivalent specifications; do not use a single rate to represent the total tax burden.
- Complete two-way document checks before procurement. On the China side, verify export licences, registration documents, inspection materials and, where applicable, the manufacturer's after-sales confirmation letter; on the Pakistan side, verify acceptable inspection certificates and issuing bodies for the corresponding models. Provide buyers with traceable mileage, accident repair history and warranty boundaries.
- Validate demand with small-scale enquiries. Collect feedback from local dealers by model, powertrain, specification and budget; compare total cost against new vehicles, used vehicles and locally assembled models before deciding whether to stock. Russia's growth data can only help frame research questions.
- Maintain country-specific files separately. The Ghana used vehicle import rules article can serve as a reference index for another country; its age and inspection provisions cannot be applied to Pakistan. For related updates, see this week's global industry highlights.
Methodology and limits
This piece is translated and localised from ExportGEO's editor-verified Chinese article. The topic originated from ExportGEO's industry radar multi-source signals, and sources were verified item by item by editors before publication. Author Rocky cross-checked automaker annual reports, government documents and primary media coverage; eight facts were checked by editors using AI-assisted web search (AI-assisted, not an independent audit), while four points remain to be verified. The eight facts are counted according to the eight fact groups in the key facts table; dates, values and restatements within the same group in the body or FAQ are not double-counted. The four points are counted according to the to-be-verified list in this section.
Materials reviewed include the original IMC annual report from its website (p.112 read), the Dawn article, Pakistan PID and FBR documents, the official reprint of China's four-ministry notice, and primary Russian media reports. Dawn returned a 403 error in source-checking tools but is readable in public browsers; Pakistan volume figures rely primarily on the obtained IMC annual report. Original Google News aggregation links are retained only in historical source records and are not used as factual evidence; RG.ru figures from the earlier draft are kept as a dispute record.
The following four points remain "to be verified" and should be documented in writing before placing orders:
- Pakistan's current schemes and age rules: Formal amending orders applicable after 2026-06-30, boundaries between personal and commercial schemes, exceptions and transitional clauses.
- Full model compliance list from China to Pakistan: Complete export qualifications and quality requirements on the China side, plus Pakistan's model-by-model conditions for steering configuration, emissions, safety, pre-shipment inspection, certification bodies and certificates; the verified 180-day requirement covers only part of this.
- Actual total duties and landed costs: Specific PCT codes, valuation, applicable taxes and potential concession eligibility; no complete unit-by-unit calculation has been performed.
- Russian statistical scope and old-draft conflicts: Original customs data, vehicle definitions and coverage, and the comparability of original draft figures such as 551,000 and 36,400 units with current sources.
Pakistan's import volumes are IMC annual report estimates, and the approximately 9.5% figure is an editorial calculation based on rounded data; the report's explanation of policy impacts does not constitute independent causal verification. Russia's indicators differ by country, period and vehicle scope and cannot be directly extrapolated to Pakistan's demand. Current full entry rules, model certification lists, unit-by-unit total duties and Russian statistical scopes remain to be verified. Whether Chinese cars "can fill the gap" is a conditional judgement made under the above limitations, not a sales forecast. This article has not verified the complete import regimes for new vehicles, locally assembled vehicles and used vehicles respectively; used vehicle provisions cannot be extended to all automotive transactions.